“What the pupil must learn, if he learns anything at all, is that the world will do most of the work for you, provided you cooperate with it by identifying how it really works and aligning with those realities. If we do not let the world teach us, it teaches us a lesson.” —Joseph Tussman
“In a time of drastic change it is the learners who inherit the future. The learned usually find themselves equipped to live in a world that no longer exists.” —Eric Hoffer
“The wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don’t. It’s just that simple.” —Charlie Munger
“Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards - so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value.” —Warren Buffett (1996 Letter to Shareholders)
"It takes
twenty years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it." —Warren
Buffett
“Rule #1: Never
Lose Money; Rule #2: Never forget Rule #1.” —Warren Buffett
"An
investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of
principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements
are speculative." —Ben Graham
“Be fearful
when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” —Warren Buffett
“The less
prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with
which we should conduct our own affairs.” —Warren Buffett
"What the
wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end." —Warren Buffett
"It is
remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to
be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There
must be some wisdom in the folk saying: 'It's the strong swimmers who
drown.'" –Charlie Munger
"I could
see that I was not going to cope as well as I wished with life unless I could
acquire a better theory-structure on which to hang my observations and
experiences. By then, my craving for more theory had a long history. Partly, I
had always loved theory as an aid in puzzle solving and as a means of
satisfying my monkey-like-curiosity. And, partly, I had found that
theory-structure was a superpower in helping one get what one wanted. As I had
early discovered in school wherein I had excelled without labor, guided by
theory, while many others, without mastery of theory failed despite monstrous
effort. Better theory I thought had always worked for me and, if now available
could make me acquire capital and independence faster and better assist
everything I loved." —Charlie Munger
“The number one
idea is to view a stock as an ownership of the business and to judge the
staying quality of the business in terms of its competitive advantage. Look for
more value in terms of discounted future cash-flow than you are paying for.
Move only when you have an advantage.” –Charlie Munger
"Our job
is to find a few intelligent things to do, not to keep up with every damn thing
in the world." -Charlie Munger
"We don't
have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the
rest." -Warren Buffett
"We don't
get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll
wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
"The hard
part is discipline, patience, and judgment. Investors need discipline to avoid
the many unattractive pitches that are thrown, patience to wait for the right
pitch, and judgment to know when it is time to swing." -Seth Klarman
"Charlie
and I have a number of filters that things have to get through before we'll
think about them." -Warren Buffett
“We really can
say no in 10 seconds or so to 90%+ of all the things that come along simply
because we have these filters.” -Warren Buffett
"We're
emphasizing the knowable by predicting how certain people and companies will
swim against the current. We're not predicting the fluctuation in the
current." -Charlie Munger
"I think
I've been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power
of incentives, and all my life I've underestimated it." -Charlie Munger
“It was never
my thinking that made the big money. It was always my sitting. Men who can both
be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to
learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he
can make big money.” -Jesse Livermore
Either:
"In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it
is a weighing machine." --Ben Graham .... or "...the market is not a weighing machine, on which the value of each issue is recorded by an exact and impersonal mechanism, in accordance with its specific qualities. Rather should we say that the market is a voting machine, whereon countless individuals register choices which are the product partly of reason and partly of emotion." --Ben Graham and David Dodd
“Confronted
with a challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we
venture the motto, Margin of Safety.” - Ben Graham
“If it’s close,
we don’t play.” - Ben Graham
"Value
investing is risk aversion." - Seth Klarman
"Value
investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a
calculator." - Seth Klarman
“To achieve
long-term success over many financial market and economic cycles, observing a
few rules is not enough. Too many things change too quickly in the investment
world for that approach to succeed. It is necessary instead to understand the
rationale behind the rules in order to appreciate why they work when they do
and don't when they don't.” -Seth Klarman
“As to methods
there may be a million and then some, but principles are few. The man who
grasps principles can successfully select his own methods. The man who tries
methods, ignoring principles, is sure to have trouble.” -Ralph Waldo Emerson
"You don't
need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns. But
if you aren't, you must recognize your limitations and follow a course certain
to work reasonably well. Keep things simple and don't swing for the fences.
When promised quick profits, respond with a quick 'no'." -Warren Buffett
“The game of
life is the game of everlasting learning. At least it is if you want to win.”
–Charlie Munger
"1) Don’t
sell anything you wouldn’t buy yourself, 2) Don’t work for anyone you don’t
respect, 3) Work only with people you enjoy." - Charlie Munger
"It is
better to be roughly right than precisely wrong." - John Maynard Keynes
"In our
view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses-How to
Value a Business, and How to Think about Market Prices. Your goal as an
investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in
an easily-understandable business who's earnings are virtually certain to be
materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now." -Warren Buffett
"All
intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more that you are paying
for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie
Munger
"Interestingly,
we have beaten the market quite handsomely over this time frame, although
beating the market has never been our objective. Rather, we have consistently
tried not to lose money and, in doing so, have not only protected on the
downside but also outperformed on the upside." - Seth Klarman
“Doubt is not a
pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” –Voltaire
"The
considerations upon which expectations of prospective yields are based are
partly existing facts which we can assume to be known more or less for certain,
and partly future events which can only be forecasted with more or less
confidence.
It would be
foolish, in forming our expectations, to attach great weight to matters which
are very uncertain. It is reasonable, therefore, to be guided to a considerable
degree by the facts about which we feel somewhat confident, even then they may
be less decisively relevant to the issue than other facts about which our
knowledge is vague and scanty. For this reason the facts of the existing
situation enter, in a sense disproportionately, into the formation of our
long-term expectations; our usual practice being to take the existing situation
and to project it into the future, modified only to the extent that we have
more or less definite reasons for expecting a change.
The outstanding
fact is the extreme precariousness of the basis of knowledge on which our
estimates of prospective yield have to be made. Our knowledge of the factors
which will govern the yield of an investment some years hence is usually very
slight and often negligible. If we speak frankly, we have to admit that our
basis of knowledge for estimating the yield 10 years hence of a … [business
enterprise] … amounts to little or sometimes to nothing; or even five years
hence." - John Maynard Keynes
"The
strategy we've adopted precludes our following standard diversification dogma.
Many pundits would therefore say the strategy must be riskier than that
employed by more conventional investors. We disagree. We believe that a policy
of portfolio concentration may well decrease risk if it raises, as it should,
both the intensity with which an investor thinks about a business and the
comfort-level he must feel with its economic characteristics before buying into
it." -Warren Buffett
“We believe
that almost all really good investment records will involve relatively little
diversification. The basic idea that it was hard to find good investments and
that you wanted to be in good investments, and therefore, you’d just find a few
of them that you knew a lot about and concentrate on those seemed to me such an
obviously good idea. And indeed, it’s proven to be an obviously good idea. Yet
98% of the investing world doesn’t follow it. That’s been good for us.” -
Charlie Munger
“As time goes
on, I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put
fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about
and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to
think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises
about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence….One’s
knowledge and experience are definitely limited and there are seldom more than
two or three enterprises at any given time in which I personally feel myself
entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes
“An argument is
made that there are just too many question marks about the near future;
wouldn’t it be better to wait until things clear up a bit? You know the prose:
“Maintain buying reserves until current uncertainties are resolved,” etc.
Before reaching for that crutch, face up to two unpleasant facts: The future is
never clear and you pay a very high price for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty
actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.” -Warren Buffett
"Cash
combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless." -Warren Buffett
“The most
common cause of low prices is pessimism – sometimes pervasive, sometimes
specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an
environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it
produces.” -Warren Buffett
“If only one
word is to be used to describe what Baupost does, that word should be:
'Mispricing'. We look for mispricing due to over-reaction.” -Seth Klarman
“We work really
hard never to get confused with what we know from what we think or hope or
wish.” -Seth Klarman
“It’s one thing
to have an opinion of the macro but something very different to act as if it’s
correct.” -Howard Marks
“The pessimist
complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist
adjusts the sails.” -William Arthur Ward
"Out of
clutter, find simplicity. From discord, find harmony. In the middle of
difficulty lies opportunity." -Albert Einstein
“In my opinion,
there are two key concepts that investors must master: value and cycles. For
each asset you’re considering, you must have a strongly held view of its
intrinsic value. When its price is below that value, it’s generally a buy. When
its price is higher, it’s a sell. In a nutshell, that’s value investing.
But values
aren’t fixed; they move in response to changes in the economic environment.
Thus, cyclical considerations influence an asset’s current value. Value depends
on earnings, for example, and earnings are shaped by the economic cycle and the
price being charged for liquidity.
Further,
security prices are greatly affected by investor behavior; thus we can be aided
in investing safely by understanding where we stand in terms of the market
cycle. What’s going on in terms of investor psychology, and how does it tell us
to act in the short run? We want to buy when prices seem attractive. But if
investors are giddy and optimism is rampant, we have to consider whether a
better buying opportunity mightn’t come along later.” –Howard Marks
"I have no
data yet. It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data. Insensibly
one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit
facts." -The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes
“A man should
never be ashamed to own that he has been in the wrong, which is but saying, in
other words, that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.” –Jonathan Swift
“There is
nothing wrong with changing a plan when the situation has changed.” –Seneca
“Occasions when
you can change your mind should be cherished, because they mean you’re smarter
than you were before.” -Malcolm Gladwell
“Life is not
about waiting for the storm to pass, it is about learning to dance in the
rain.” -Unknown
“Discovery is
looking at what everyone else sees, and seeing what everyone else misses.”
-Kauffman Foundation
“Don't be
astonished at new ideas; you know it does not cease to be true because it is
not accepted by many.” -Benedict de Spinoza
"The stock
market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the
value of nothing." - Phil Fisher
"In
economics, you always want to ask 'And then what?'" - Warren Buffett
“There is a
tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.”
-Shakespeare
“The first
principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to
fool.” -Richard Feynman
"The
chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be
broken." -Warren Buffett
“The minute you
get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or
mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game, your schoolwork,
your job, whatever you’re doing.” -Michael Jordan
"Be so
good they can't ignore you." -Steve Martin
“Plough deep,
while sluggards sleep, and you shall have corn to sell and keep. Work while it
is called today, for you know not how much you may be hindered tomorrow. One
today is worth two tomorrows, and Never leave that till tomorrow, which you can
do today.”
“If you were a
servant, would you not be ashamed that a good master should catch you idle? Are
you then your own master? Be ashamed to catch yourself idle when there is so
much to be done for yourself, your family, and your country. Handle your tools
without mittens: Remember, that the cat in gloves catches no mice.”
“It is true,
there is much to be done, and perhaps, you are weak handed; but stick to it
steadily, and you will see great effects; for Constant dropping wears away stones;
and by diligence and patience the mouse ate in two the cable; and little
strokes fell great oaks.” -Ben Franklin
“Acquire Riches
by Industry and Frugality.” -Ben Franklin
“Your life must
focus on the maximization of objectivity." -Charlie Munger
“A few major
opportunities, clearly recognizable as such, will usually come to one who
continuously searches and waits, with a curious mind, loving diagnosis
involving multiple variables. And then all that is required is a willingness to
bet heavily when the odds are extremely favorable, using resources available as
a result of prudence and patience in the past.” -Charlie Munger
"Ain't
only three things to gambling: knowing the 60-40 end of the proposition, money
management, and knowing yourself." -"Puggy" Pearson
“You need to
have a passionate interest in why things are happening. That cast of mind, kept
over long periods, gradually improves your ability to focus on reality. If you
don’t have that cast of mind, you’re destined for failure even if you have a
high I.Q.” -Charlie Munger
"Here's
one truth that perhaps your typical investment counselor would disagree with:
if you're comfortably rich and someone else is getting richer faster than you
by, for example, investing in risky stocks, so what?! Someone will always be
getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy.” -Charlie Munger
“He is a wise
man who does not grieve for the things which he has not, but rejoices for those
which he has.” -Epictetus
“You’ve got to
have models in your head and you’ve got to array you experience – both
vicarious and direct – onto this latticework of mental models.” -Charlie Munger
“Acquire
worldly wisdom and adjust your behavior accordingly. If your new behavior gives
you a little temporary unpopularity with your peer group… then to hell with
them.” -Charlie Munger
“If it is
wisdom you’re after, you’re going to spend a lot of time on your ass reading.”
-Charlie Munger
"In my
whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who
didn't read all the time -- none, zero... You'd be amazed at how much Warren
reads -- at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I'm a book
with a couple of legs sticking out." -Charlie Munger
"Warren
and I insist on a lot of time being available almost every day to just sit and
think. That is very uncommon in American business. We read and think. So Warren
and I do more reading and thinking and less doing than most people in
business." -Charlie Munger
“The man who
doesn’t read good books has no advantage over the man who can’t read them.”
-Mark Twain
“Not everything
that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.”
-sign that hung in Albert Einstein’s office at Princeton
"Most of
what we say and do is not essential. If you can eliminate it, you'll have more
time, and more tranquility. Ask yourself at every moment, 'Is this
necessary?" -Marcus Aurelius
"The
definition of insanity is doing something over and over again and expecting
different results." -Albert Einstein
“If I have seen
further [than certain other men] it is by standing upon the shoulders of
giants.” -Sir Isaac Newton
“If I am anything,
which I highly doubt, I have made myself so by hard work.” -Sir Isaac Newton
“The harder you
work the luckier you get.” -Ben Franklin
"More
important than the will to win is the will to prepare." -Charlie Munger
“In all things
success depends on previous preparation, and without such previous preparation
there is sure to be failure” –Confucius
"Hard
work, honesty, if you keep at it, will get you almost anything." -Charlie
Munger
"Plans are
only good intentions unless they immediately degenerate into hard work."
-Peter Drucker
"Determine
never to be idle. No person will have occasion to complain of the want of time
who never loses any. It is wonderful how much may be done if we are always
doing." -Thomas Jefferson
"I have
been speculating...what makes a man a discoverer of undiscovered things, and a
most perplexing problem it is. Many men who are very clever, -- much cleverer
than the discoverers -- never originate anything. As far as I can conjecture,
the art consists in habitually searching for the causes and meaning of
everything which occurs. This implies sharp observation and requires as much
knowledge as possible of the subject investigated." -Charles Darwin
"The most
difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not
formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to
the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already,
without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him." –Leo Tolstoy
“It is
impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows.”
–Epictetus
"I have
always thought that one man of tolerable abilities may work great changes, and
accomplish great affairs among mankind if he first forms a good plan and,
cutting off all amusements or other employments that would divert his
attention, makes the execution of that same plan his sole study and
business." -Ben Franklin
“The difference
between successful people and really successful people is that really
successful people say no to almost everything.” –Warren Buffett
“At Baupost, we
constantly ask: 'What should we work on today?' We keep calling and talking. We
keep gathering information. You never have perfect information. So you work,
work and work. Sometimes we thumb through Value Line. How you fill your inbox
is very important.” -Seth Klarman
"You can
become, to an enormous degree, the person you want to be." -Warren Buffett
“I have a
motto: it’s never too late to give up. It’s never too late to give up what you
are doing, and start doing what you realise you love.” –Hans Rosling
"Success
is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that
counts." -Winston Churchill
“The content of
your character is your choice. Day by day, what you choose, what you think, and
what you do is who you become. Your integrity is your destiny…it is the light
that guides your way.” -Heraclitus
"What
difference does it make how much there is laid away in a man's safe or in his
barns, how many head of stock he grazes or how much capital he puts out at
interest, if he is always after what is another's and only counts what he has
yet to get, never what he has already. You ask what is the proper limit to a
person's wealth? First, having what is essential, and second, having what is
enough." -Seneca
"When I
was 17 I read a quote that went something like "If you live each day as if
it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an
impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the
mirror every morning and asked myself, "If today were the last day of my
life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the
answer has been "no" for too many days in a row, I know I need to
change something. Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important
thing I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life, because
almost everything--all external expectations, all pride, all fear of
embarrassment or failure--these things just fall away in the face of death,
leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is
the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose.
You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart."
-Steve Jobs
"Whenever
you do any one thing intensely over a period of time you have to give up other
lives you could be living. You have to have a real single-minded kind of tunnel
vision if you want to get anything significant accomplished. Especially if the
desire is not to be a businessman, but to be a creative person." -Steve
Jobs
"Creativity
is just connecting things. When you ask creative people how they did something,
they feel a little guilty because they didn’t really do it, they just saw
something. It seemed obvious to them after a while. That’s because they were
able to connect experiences they’ve had and synthesize new things. And the
reason they were able to do that was that they’ve had more experiences or they
have thought more about their experiences than other people. Unfortunately,
that’s too rare a commodity. A lot of people in our industry haven’t had very
diverse experiences. So they don’t have enough dots to connect, and they end up
with very linear solutions without a broad perspective on the problem. The
broader one’s understanding of the human experience, the better design we will
have." -Steve Jobs
“Complex
systems don't have causes. There are just patterns and at any point one's state
of health can move randomly onto a new path. It is not the particular path that
one should think about. You move over an ensemble of possible paths,
conditional on how you live and the choices you make. All you can do is to try
to influence the distribution of possibilities. You can never set the
particular path or outcome that will be yours from this time forward. If you
think you can look back and see some cause of events, you are probably
suffering hindsight bias or what I call complexity blindness.
Think of the
freedom this view gives you. There is no possibility of failure because you
only control your actions and they only influence the probable evolution of
your life over stochastic future paths. There is no failure, only feedback.”
–Art De Vany
Warren Buffett
on debt:
"We rarely
use much debt and, when we do, we attempt to structure it on a long-term fixed
rate basis. We will reject interesting opportunities rather than over-leverage
our balance sheet. This conservatism has penalized our results but it is the
only behavior that leaves us comfortable, considering our fiduciary obligations
to policyholders, depositors, lenders and the many equity holders who have
committed unusually large portions of their net worth to our care."
"In the
end, alchemy, whether it is metallurgical or financial, fails. A base business
can not be transformed into a golden business by tricks of accounting or
capital structure. The man claiming to be a financial alchemist may become
rich. But gullible investors rather than business achievements will usually be
the source of his wealth.”
"You
really don’t need leverage in this world much. If you’re smart, you’re going to
make a lot of money without borrowing. I’ve never borrowed a significant amount
of money in my life. Never. Never will. I’ve got no interest in it. The other
reason is I never thought I would be way happier when I had 2X instead of X.
You ought to have a good time all the time as you go along.”
And:
"The financial
calculus that Charlie and I employ would never permit our trading a good
night's sleep for a shot at a few extra percentage points of return. I've never
believed in risking what my friends and family have and need in order to pursue
what they don't have and don't need."
Seth Klarman on
risk:
“The risk of an
investment is described by both the probability and the potential amount of
loss. The risk of an investment—the probability of an adverse outcome—is partly
inherent in its very nature. A dollar spent on biotechnology research is a
riskier investment than a dollar used to purchase utility equipment. The former
has both a greater probability of loss and a greater percentage of the
investment at stake.
In the
financial markets, however, the connection between a marketable security and
the underlying business is not as clear-cut. For investors in a marketable
security the gain or loss associated with the various outcomes is not totally
inherent in the underlying business; it also depends on the price paid, which
is established by the marketplace. The view that risk is dependent on both the
nature of investments and on their market price is very different from that
described by beta.
While security
analysts attempt to determine with precision the risk and return of
investments, events alone accomplish that. For most investments the amount of
profit earned can be known only after maturity or sale. Only for the safest of
investments is return knowable at the time of purchase: a one-year 6 percent
T-bill returns 6 percent at the end of one year. For riskier investments the
outcome must be known before the return can be calculated. If you buy one
hundred shares of Chrysler Corporation, for example, your return depends almost
entirely on the price at which it is trading when you sell. Only then can the return
be calculated.
Unlike return,
however, risk is no more quantifiable at the end of an investment that it was
at its beginning. Risk simply cannot be described by a single number.
Intuitively we understand that risk varies from investment to investment: a
government bond is not as risky as the stock of a high-technology company. But
investments do not provide information about their risks the way food packages
provide nutritional data.
Rather, risk is
a perception in each investor’s mind that results from analysis of the
probability and amount of potential loss from an investment. If an exploratory
oil well proves to be a dry hole, it is called risky. If a bond defaults or a
stock plunges in price, they are called risky. But if the well is a gusher, the
bond matures on schedule, and the stock rallies strongly, can we say they
weren’t risky when the investment after it is concluded than was known when it
was made.
There are only
a few things investors can do to counteract risk: diversify adequately, hedge
when appropriate, and invest with a margin of safety. It is a precisely because
we do not and cannot know all the risks of an investment that we strive to
invest at a discount. The bargain element helps to provide a cushion for when
things go wrong.”
“While some
might mistakenly consider value investing a mechanical tool for identifying
bargains, it is actually a comprehensive investment philosophy that emphasizes
the need to perform in-depth fundamental analysis, pursue long-term investment
results, limit risk, and resist crowd psychology.” -Seth Klarman
“Risk means
more things can happen than will happen.” -Elroy Dimson
"We have
two kinds of forecasters, those who don't know and those who don't know they
don't know." -John Kenneth Galbraith
"It is
frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to
think that by and large the world is run by people who have faith that they
know exactly what is going on." -Amos Tversky
"It ain't
what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It what you know for certain
that just ain't true." -Mark Twain
“There is a
great difference between knowing and understanding: you can know a lot about
something and not really understand it.” –Charles F. Kettering
"I have no
use whatsoever for projections or forecasts. They create an illusion of
apparent precision. The more meticulous they are, the more concerned you should
be. We never look at projections, but we care very much about, and look very
deeply at, track records. If a company has a lousy track record, but a very
bright future, we will miss the opportunity..." -Warren Buffett
"[Projections]
are put together by people who have an interest in a particular outcome, have a
subconscious bias, and its apparent precision makes it fallacious. They remind
me of Mark Twain's saying, 'A mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar.'
Projections in America are often a lie, although not an intentional one, but
the worst kind because the forecaster often believes them himself."
-Charlie Munger
Quotes on
Simplicity:
"We have a
passion for keeping things simple." -Charles Munger
"It's
amazing how many people even today use a computer to do something you can do
with a pencil and paper in less time." -Richard Feynman (from No Ordinary
Genius)
"The art
of being wise is the art of knowing what to overlook." -William James
"Part of
that [having uncommon sense], I think, is being able to tune out folly, as
distinguished from recognizing wisdom. You've got whole categories of things
you just bat away so your brain isn't cluttered with them. That way, you're
better able to pick up a few sensible things to do." -Charles Munger
"Yeah, we
don't consider many stupid things. I mean, we get rid of 'em fast...Just
getting rid of the nonsense -- just figuring out that if people call you and
say, 'I've got this great, wonderful idea', you don't spend 10 minutes once you
know in the first sentence that it isn't a great, wonderful idea...Don't be
polite and go through the whole process." -Warren Buffett
"The harder
you work, the more confidence you get. But you may be working hard on something
that is false." -Charles Munger
“Simplicity
means the achievement of maximum effect with minimum means.” -Koichi Kawana
“He is a
foolish swimmer who swims against the stream, when he might take the current
sideways.” -Ovid
“If you can't
explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.” -possibly by Albert
Einstein
“Order and
simplification are the first steps toward the mastery of a subject.” -Thomas
Mann
“A theory is
the more impressive the greater the simplicity of its premises, the more
different kinds of things it relates, and the more extended its area of
applicability.” -Albert Einstein
“To avoid the
various foolish opinions to which mankind are prone, no superhuman genius is
required. A few simple rules will keep you, not from all error, but from silly
error.” -Bertrand Russell
“There is a
master key to success with which no man can fail. Its name is simplicity.
Simplicity, I mean, in the sense of reducing to the simplest possible terms
every problem that besets us. Whenever I have met a business proposition which,
after taking thought, I could not reduce to simplicity, I have left it alone.”
-Henri Deterding
“The ability to
simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the necessary may speak.”
-Hans Hofmann
“There never
was a sounder logical maxim of scientific procedure than Ockham’s razor: Entia
non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem. That is to say; before you try a
complicated hypothesis, you should make quite sure that no simplification of it
will explain the facts equally well.” -Charles Sanders Peirce
But it is also
important to remember not try to over-simplify complex matters [Peter Bevelin
comment]
“When
discussing complex systems like brains and other societies, it is easy to
oversimplify: I call this Occam's lobotomy.” -Irving John Good
“Theories
should be as simple as possible, but no simpler.” -possibly by Albert Einstein
More from Ben
Franklin:
“An ounce of
prevention is worth a pound of cure.”
“He that would
live in peace and at ease, must not speak all he knows, nor judge all he sees.”
“What you would
seem to be, be really.”
“As Pride
increases, Fortune declines.”
“Industry,
Perseverance, & Frugality, make Fortune yield.”
“To-morrow I’ll
reform, the fool does say;
To-day itself’s
too late; - the wise did yesterday.”
“Promises may
get thee friends, but non-performance will turn them into enemies.”
“Enjoy the
present hour, be mindful of the past; And neither fear nor wish the approaches
of the last.”
“What signifies
knowing the Names, if you know not the Natures of Things?”
“Well done, is
twice done.”
“There are
three Things extreamly hard; Steel, a Diamond and to know one’s self.”
“O Lazy bones!
Dost thou think God would have given thee arms and legs, if he had not design’d
thou should’st use them?”
“He’s a Fool
that cannot conceal his Wisdom.”
“No gains
without pains.”
“Beware of
little Expenses: a small Leak will sink a great Ship.”
“Pay what you
owe, and you’ll know what is your own.”
“Be always
ashamed to catch thyself idle.”
“If you would
keep your secret from an enemy, tell it not to a friend.”
“Many have been
ruined by buying good pennyworths.”
“He that lieth
down with dogs, shall rise up with fleas.”
“A Slip of the
Foot you may soon recover, but a slip of the Tongue you may never get over.”
“He that waits
upon fortune, is never sure of dinner.”
“Would you live
with ease, do what you ought, and not what you please.”
“People who are
wrapped up in themselves make small packages.”
“Would you
persuade, speak of Interest, not of Reason.”
“Do good to thy
Friend to keep him, to thy Enemy to gain him.”
“The first
Degree of Folly, is to conceit one’s self wise; the second to profess it; the
third to despise Counsel.”
“You may delay,
but Time will not.”
“Lost time is
never found again.”
“Take this
remark from Richard, poor and lame, Whate’er’s begun in Anger, ends in Shame.”
“All things are
easy to Industry, all things difficult to Sloth.”
“He that cannot
obey, cannot command.”
“If you would
reap Praise you must sow the Seeds, gentle Words and useful Deeds.”
“Haste makes
Waste.”
“Early to bed
and early to rise, makes a man healthy, wealthy, and wise.”
“If you know
how to spend less than you get, you have the philosopher’s stone.”
“Diligence is
the mother of good luck.”
“At a great
penny worth, pause a while.”
“Ignorance
leads Men into a party, and Shame keeps them from getting out again.”
“He that pays
for work before it’s done, has but a pennyworth for two pence.”
“Anger is never
without Reason, but seldom with a good One.”
“Thou can’st
not joke an enemy into a friend, but thou may’st a friend into an enemy.”
“He that falls
in love with himself, will have no rivals.”
“Patience in
Market, is worth Pounds in a year.”
“When the
well’s dry, we know the worth of water.”
“Virtue &
Happiness are Mother and Daughter.”
“Buy what thou
hast no need of, and e’er long thou shalt sell they necessaries.”
“If you would
not be forgotten, as soon as you are dead and rotten, either write things worth
reading, or do things worth the writing.”
“He that speaks
much, is much mistaken.”
“Since thou art
not sure of a Minute, throw not away an Hour.”
“’Tis easier to
suppress the first Desire, than to satisfy all that follow it.”
“He that
pursues two hares at once, does not catch one lets t’other go.”
“The sleeping
Fox catches no poultry. Up! up!”
“If your Riches
are yours, why don’t you take them to t’other World?”
“What more
valuable than Gold? Diamonds. Than Diamonds? Virtue.”
“Great Estates
may venture more; Little Boats must keep near Shore.”
“’Tis easier to
prevent bad habits than to break them.”
“Blessed is he
that expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.”
“Diligence
overcomes Difficulties, Sloth makes them.”
“Neglect
mending a small Fault, and ‘twill soon be a great One.”
“Proclaim not
all though knowest, or all though owest.”
“A Change of
Fortune hurts a wise Man no more than a Change of the Moon.”
“Love your
Enemies, for they tell you your Faults.”
“Dost thou love
Life? Then do not squander Time; for that’s the Stuff Life is made of.”
“Silence is not
always a Sign of Wisdom, but Babbling is ever a Folly.”
“A long Life
may not be good enough, but a good Life is long enough.”
“For Age and
Want save while you may; No morning Sun lasts a whole day.”
“Don’t think so
much of your own Cunning, as to forget other Men’s; a Cunning Man is
overmatched by a cunning Man and a Half.”
“You may give a
Man an Office, but you cannot give him Discretion.”
“He that doth
what he should not, shall feel what he would not.”
“He is a
Governor that governs his Passions, and he a Servant that serves them.”
“Employ thy
time well, if thou meanest to gain leisure.”
“Suspicion may
be no fault, but showing it may be a great one.”
“A good Example
is the best Sermon.”
“Wise Men learn
by others’ harms; Fools by their own.”
“Laziness
travels so slowly that Poverty soon overtakes him.”
“He that by the
Plough would thrive, himself must either hold or drive.”
“Life with
Fools consists in Drinking; with the wise Man, living’s Thinking.”
“The second
Vice is Lying; the first is running in Debt.”
“Three may keep
a secret, if two of them are dead.”
“The honest Man
takes Pains, and then enjoys Pleasures; the knave takes Pleasure, and then
suffers Pains.”
“To be proud of
Knowledge, is to be blind with Light.”
“Get what you
can, and what you get hold; ‘tis the Stone that will turn all your Lead into
Gold.”
“An honest Man
will receive neither Money nor Praise that is not his due.”
“Men take more
pains to mask than mend.”
“To be proud of
Virtue, is to poison yourself with the Antidote.”
“One To-day is
worth two To-morrows.”
“Idleness is
the Dead Sea, that swallows all Virtues: Be active in Business, that Temptation
may miss her Aim; the Bird that sits, is easily shot.”
“Let no
pleasure tempt thee, no profit allure thee, no ambition corrupt thee, no
example sway thee, no persuasion move thee, to do any thing which thou knowest
to be evil; so shalt thou always live jollily; for a good conscience is a
continual Christmas.”
"So
convenient a thing it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to
find or make a reason for everything one has a mind to do."
"When in
doubt, don't."