Value Investing World

Monday, October 29, 2007

Black Monday and Black Swans

Remarks by John C. Bogle
Founder and former chief executive, The Vanguard Group
before the
Risk Management Association
Boca Raton, Florida
October 11, 2007
Posted by Joe at 10/29/2007
Labels: John Bogle
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About VIW

Value Investing World is a blog dedicated to promoting the multidisciplinary approach to investing and development of – as Charlie Munger describes it – a latticework of mental models. Although largely focused on linking to investing and economic material it deems of interest, it will also post and link to material from other disciplines that it thinks worth reading or watching.

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      • Tandy Leather Factory – A Potential Bargain?
      • Black Monday and Black Swans
      • Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters - 1973-1976
      • So You Want To Be The Next Warren Buffett? How's Y...
      • Warren Buffett Chats with Jack Welch on CNBC's Squ...
      • Oak Value Fund - Investment Adviser’s Review – Thi...
      • Whitney Tilson Videos
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      • A Storied Name on Sale?
      • WealthTrack
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      • Is Your Brain Costing You Money?
      • Morningstar - Picks from the Other Oracle of Omaha
      • Interview with Peter Bevelin, author of Seeking Wi...
      • Street Smarts: Value Plays
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      • Whitney Tilson on Fast Money
      • WealthTrack - Bill Gross, Jean-Marie Eveillard, Ro...
      • Buffett predicts a long flight for loonie
      • Cashing In On Corporate Restructuring
      • The Pleasure of Finding Things Out
      • Bill Miller: What's luck got to do with it?
      • Benjamin Franklin - "The Way to Wealth"
      • Joe Bradley at Investors Hotline interviews Whitne...
      • Casting for Value:Where do Professional Investors ...
      • A SHORT COURSE IN THINKING ABOUT THINKING - A "Mas...
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Useful Links and Other Recommended Reading

  • 2007 and 2009 Interviews with Peter Bevelin
  • Buffett Partnership Letters
  • Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
  • Berkshire Hathaway Owner's Manual
  • Buffett FAQ
  • The Best of Charlie Munger: 1994-2011
  • Charlie Munger - The Art of Stock Picking
  • Charlie Munger - Academic Economics
  • Charlie Munger - The Psychology of Human Misjudgment
  • Charlie Munger - 2007 USC Law School Commencement Notes
  • Poor Charlie's Almanack
  • An Investing Principles Checklist from Poor Charlie's Almanack
  • Oaktree - Howard Marks Memos
  • EDGAR Company Filing Search
  • Nasdaq - Search Institutional and Manager Holdings
  • Stock Buyback Announcements
  • Insider Trading Activity
  • SEDI - Canada Insider Buying
  • Canada Insider Buying
  • Value Investors Club
  • 52 Week Low List
  • TED
  • The Great Courses Plus
  • Edge
  • Khan Academy
  • Academic Earth
  • OpenCourseWare
  • MIT OpenCourseWare
  • Open Yale
  • YouTube EDU
  • Open Culture
  • FORA.tv
  • Free Large Educational Video & Audio Library
  • Coursera
  • The Economist
  • The Gates Notes

My Favorite (and biased) Non-Investing Related Site

  • Diane Meets World

All-Time Favorite Posts

  • Favorite Quotes
  • Charlie Munger on the balance between competency and gumption...
  • Charlie Munger on how he invested when younger compared to today, and how he reads books
  • Charlie Munger: The Importance of Multiple Mental Models
  • Warren Buffett on temperament...
  • What can go wrong? [after the links]
  • Memortation, or One Way to Put What You Learn to Practical Use
  • Key Checklist Items
  • Final Decision Checklist
  • Fundamentals...
  • If it's not simple, then I'm not interested...
  • Areté
  • Stoicism quotes, thoughts, and readings
  • Charlie Munger on uncommon sense
  • Interview with Peter Bevelin, author of Seeking Wisdom - from Darwin to Munger
  • Second Interview with Peter Bevelin
  • Focusing on expected returns instead of intrinsic value…
  • Filters
  • Moonwalking with Einstein
  • Dr. Peter Drucker: FEEDBACK: KEY TO CONTINUOUS LEARNING
  • Quotes on ‘the biggest mistake investors make’.
  • Tom Russo quote
  • Bill Gates quote from Charlie Rose interview (or, how the world's best companies are built by fanatics)
  • Charlie Munger - USC Law School Commencement - May 13, 2007
  • Charlie and Checklists
  • An Investing Principles Checklist from Poor Charlie
  • Charlie Munger on high quality businesses and management
  • Generalizing the Kelly Criterion
  • A quick diversification thought...
  • Ed Thorp, Jack Schwager, and the Kelly criterion
  • Graham and Dodd quote (adjusting assets in calculating book value)
  • Fully Translated: Li Lu's Foreword to Poor Charlie's Almanack
  • Ben Franklin's 13 Virtues
  • Ben Franklin - 3 Essays - The Ephemera; The Whistle; Franklin and the Gout
  • Ben Franklin and the Junto
  • Ben Franklin on Humility (and some crafty advice on persuasion)
  • Nassim Taleb and barbells
  • Nassim Taleb on Seneca
  • Seneca quotes (on time)
  • Welcome Disagreement. Avoid Argument.
  • Herbert Simon quote on the value of mental models
  • Seth Klarman quote and some thoughts on deliberate practice in investing
  • Warren Buffett quote on filters
  • Alice Schroeder on Buffett’s filtering process
  • Quote (on success, failure)
  • Howard Marks on defensive investing
  • Warren Buffett on Diversification - 1966
  • Charlie Munger quote (diversification)
  • Warren Buffett’s Comments on Inflation
  • Warren Buffett on Share Repurchases
  • Fortune: December 2001 - Warren Buffett on the Stock Market
  • Berkshire Hathaway 2007 Annual Meeting - Valuation/IRR Question
  • Thomas W. Phelps on opinions
  • It’s a matter of reading and asking questions
  • Tariq Ali’s Notes from Li Lu’s 2010 Lecture at Columbia
  • Warren Buffett's 2007 Shareholder Letter
  • Warren Buffett's 2008 Shareholder Letter
  • Seth Klarman Letters: 1995 - mid 2001
  • Mohnish Pabrai on position sizing
  • Complex systems: Ecology for bankers
  • Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Tending Seeds - Reacting, Responding, Planting, and Watering
  • What it takes to be great
  • Following the Path to Mastery with Robert Greene
  • THE CHECKLIST - by Atul Gawande
  • Carl Sagan - Pale Blue Dot
  • The Most Astounding Fact About the Universe

Charlie Munger

  • Poor Charlie's Almanack
  • The Best of Charlie Munger: 1994-2011
  • VIDEO: Charlie Munger - USC Law School Commencement - May 13, 2007
  • NOTES: Charlie Munger - USC Law School Commencement - May 13, 2007
  • Charlie Munger's "The Psychology of Human Misjudgment"

Warren Buffett

  • Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders
  • Buffett inflation file
  • BUFFETT FAQ

Ben Franklin

  • Ben Franklin's 13 Virtues
  • Ben Franklin - 3 Essays - The Ephemera; The Whistle; Franklin and the Gout

Benjamin Graham

  • The Papers of Benjamin Graham (PDF)
  • The Rediscovered Benjamin Graham: Selected Writings of the Wall Street Legend (PDF)
  • Ben Graham interview (1955)
  • Securities in an Insecure World (1963 Speech)

Peter Bevelin

  • 2007 and 2009 interviews with Peter Bevelin
  • Peter Bevelin's 2016 interview with Farnam Street
  • PDF of Peter Bevelin interviews (2007 and 2009 with Value Investing World; 2016 with Farnam Street)

Howard Marks

  • Howard Marks memos
  • Compilation: Howard Marks Memos from 1990 - July 2011
  • Book: The Most Important Thing
  • Book: Mastering the Market Cycle

Seth Klarman

  • Seth Klarman Letters: 1995 - mid 2001
  • Seth Klarman on the Painful Decision to Hold Cash
  • Seth Klarman - October 2007 Remarks at MIT

Michael Mauboussin

  • Measuring the Moat
  • Competitive Advantage Period "CAP"
  • The Base Rate Book
  • Reflections on the Ten Attributes of Great Investors
  • Who Is On the Other Side?
  • What Does a Price-Earnings Multiple Mean?
  • What Does an EV/EBITDA Multiple Mean?
  • Capital Allocation
  • Capital Allocation Outside the U.S.
  • Operating Leverage

Diversification

  • Warren Buffett on Diversification - 1966
  • Warren Buffett on Diversification (1998)
  • Phil Fisher on diversification
  • More from Phil Fisher on diversification
  • Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on portfolio concentration, and having the right temperament for it
  • Seth Klarman on position sizing (bottom paragraph)
  • Mohnish Pabrai on position sizing
  • Generalizing the Kelly Criterion
  • A quick diversification thought...
  • A few comments on the Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders

Checklists

  • Charlie and Checklists
  • An Investing Principles Checklist from Poor Charlie
  • Key Checklist Items

Expert Performance / Self-Improvement

  • Bill Gates quote from Charlie Rose interview (or, how the world's best companies are built by fanatics)
  • Dr. Peter Drucker: FEEDBACK: KEY TO CONTINUOUS LEARNING
  • What it takes to be great

Disclaimers

Disclaimer #1: This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation for any security, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory or other services by Sorfis Investments, LLC ("Sorfis") or any other entities related to or owned by Sorfis. No reference to any specific security constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that security or any other security. Nothing on this website shall be considered a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any security, future, option or other financial instrument or to offer or provide any investment advice or service to any person in any jurisdiction. Nothing contained on the website constitutes investment advice or offers any opinion with respect to the suitability of any security, and the views expressed on this website should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. In preparing the information contained in this website, I have not taken into account the investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances of any particular investor. This information has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific recipient of this information and investments discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Any views expressed on this website by me were prepared based upon the information available to me at the time such views were written. Changed or additional information could cause such views to change. All information is subject to possible correction. Information may quickly become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances.

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