Value Investing World

Monday, July 26, 2010

James Montier: Is Austerity the Road to Ruin?

In this paper, James Montier, a member of GMO's Asset Allocation team, looks at what he describes as a worrying trend in the world today: the rise of the Austerians. Are austerity measures the antidote to today's struggling economies, or would they cause even more damage if policy makers choose to implement them?
Posted by Joe at 7/26/2010
Labels: James Montier
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Value Investing World is a blog dedicated to promoting the multidisciplinary approach to investing and development of – as Charlie Munger describes it – a latticework of mental models. Although largely focused on linking to investing and economic material it deems of interest, it will also post and link to material from other disciplines that it thinks worth reading or watching.

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      • Tim Ferriss - Google IO Ignite - Practical Pessimism
      • From Tiananmen Square to Possible Buffett Successor
      • Jeff Bezos on Charlie Rose
      • Khan Academy
      • James Montier: Is Austerity the Road to Ruin?
      • John Mauldin: Some Thoughts on Deflation
      • Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Betting on a Bubble...
      • Bill Gates Speech - American Federation of Teachers
      • "We are What We Choose"
      • Howard Marks Memo: It’s Greek to Me
      • Ricardo Semler Lecture: Leading by Omission
      • Roger Lowenstein on WealthTrack
      • An Outspoken Man in a Secretive Trade
      • In Defense of Difference and The Science of Resili...
      • Jeremy Grantham's 2Q Letter: Summer Essays
      • The busy mind on meditation
      • John Mauldin: The Debt Supercycle
      • Greenlight Capital Q2 2010 Letter
      • Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Don't Take the Bait
      • Warren Buffett Tells Obama Still 'Long Way to Go' ...
      • John Hussman on CNBC - 6/30/2010
      • Morningstar interview with John Hussman
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      • Complex systems: Ecology for bankers
      • Evolutionary Well-Being: the paleolithic model
      • The Boeckh Investment Letter - The Great Reflation...
      • Real-world turbulence, market lull: Apollo Asia Fu...
      • Jim Grant Discusses Potential New Federal Reserve ...
      • Risky Business: James Bagian—NASA astronaut turned...
      • Obscure book by British adviser becomes cult hit a...
      • GR-NEAM Reflections: 07/01/2010 - Sovereign Credit...
      • Volcker Pushes for Reform, Regretting Past Silence
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      • Sticking to What Works
      • Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Misallocating Resou...
      • Reflections on the Sovereign Debt Crisis - By Edwa...
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      • Shiller Wary on Economic Outlook
      • John Mauldin: The Dismal Science Really Is
      • They Did Their Homework (800 Years of It)
      • Recent SocGen Pieces
      • TED Talk - David Cameron: The next age of government
      • TED Talk - Chip Conley: Measuring what makes life ...
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Useful Links and Other Recommended Reading

  • 2007 and 2009 Interviews with Peter Bevelin
  • Buffett Partnership Letters
  • Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
  • Berkshire Hathaway Owner's Manual
  • Buffett FAQ
  • The Best of Charlie Munger: 1994-2011
  • Charlie Munger - The Art of Stock Picking
  • Charlie Munger - Academic Economics
  • Charlie Munger - The Psychology of Human Misjudgment
  • Charlie Munger - 2007 USC Law School Commencement Notes
  • Poor Charlie's Almanack
  • An Investing Principles Checklist from Poor Charlie's Almanack
  • Oaktree - Howard Marks Memos
  • EDGAR Company Filing Search
  • Nasdaq - Search Institutional and Manager Holdings
  • Stock Buyback Announcements
  • Insider Trading Activity
  • SEDI - Canada Insider Buying
  • Canada Insider Buying
  • Value Investors Club
  • 52 Week Low List
  • TED
  • The Great Courses Plus
  • Edge
  • Khan Academy
  • Academic Earth
  • OpenCourseWare
  • MIT OpenCourseWare
  • Open Yale
  • YouTube EDU
  • Open Culture
  • FORA.tv
  • Free Large Educational Video & Audio Library
  • Coursera
  • The Economist
  • The Gates Notes

My Favorite (and biased) Non-Investing Related Site

  • Diane Meets World

All-Time Favorite Posts

  • Favorite Quotes
  • Charlie Munger on the balance between competency and gumption...
  • Charlie Munger on how he invested when younger compared to today, and how he reads books
  • Charlie Munger: The Importance of Multiple Mental Models
  • Warren Buffett on temperament...
  • What can go wrong? [after the links]
  • Memortation, or One Way to Put What You Learn to Practical Use
  • Key Checklist Items
  • Final Decision Checklist
  • Fundamentals...
  • If it's not simple, then I'm not interested...
  • Areté
  • Stoicism quotes, thoughts, and readings
  • Charlie Munger on uncommon sense
  • Interview with Peter Bevelin, author of Seeking Wisdom - from Darwin to Munger
  • Second Interview with Peter Bevelin
  • Focusing on expected returns instead of intrinsic value…
  • Filters
  • Moonwalking with Einstein
  • Dr. Peter Drucker: FEEDBACK: KEY TO CONTINUOUS LEARNING
  • Quotes on ‘the biggest mistake investors make’.
  • Tom Russo quote
  • Bill Gates quote from Charlie Rose interview (or, how the world's best companies are built by fanatics)
  • Charlie Munger - USC Law School Commencement - May 13, 2007
  • Charlie and Checklists
  • An Investing Principles Checklist from Poor Charlie
  • Charlie Munger on high quality businesses and management
  • Generalizing the Kelly Criterion
  • A quick diversification thought...
  • Ed Thorp, Jack Schwager, and the Kelly criterion
  • Graham and Dodd quote (adjusting assets in calculating book value)
  • Fully Translated: Li Lu's Foreword to Poor Charlie's Almanack
  • Ben Franklin's 13 Virtues
  • Ben Franklin - 3 Essays - The Ephemera; The Whistle; Franklin and the Gout
  • Ben Franklin and the Junto
  • Ben Franklin on Humility (and some crafty advice on persuasion)
  • Nassim Taleb and barbells
  • Nassim Taleb on Seneca
  • Seneca quotes (on time)
  • Welcome Disagreement. Avoid Argument.
  • Herbert Simon quote on the value of mental models
  • Seth Klarman quote and some thoughts on deliberate practice in investing
  • Warren Buffett quote on filters
  • Alice Schroeder on Buffett’s filtering process
  • Quote (on success, failure)
  • Howard Marks on defensive investing
  • Warren Buffett on Diversification - 1966
  • Charlie Munger quote (diversification)
  • Warren Buffett’s Comments on Inflation
  • Warren Buffett on Share Repurchases
  • Fortune: December 2001 - Warren Buffett on the Stock Market
  • Berkshire Hathaway 2007 Annual Meeting - Valuation/IRR Question
  • Thomas W. Phelps on opinions
  • It’s a matter of reading and asking questions
  • Tariq Ali’s Notes from Li Lu’s 2010 Lecture at Columbia
  • Warren Buffett's 2007 Shareholder Letter
  • Warren Buffett's 2008 Shareholder Letter
  • Seth Klarman Letters: 1995 - mid 2001
  • Mohnish Pabrai on position sizing
  • Complex systems: Ecology for bankers
  • Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Tending Seeds - Reacting, Responding, Planting, and Watering
  • What it takes to be great
  • Following the Path to Mastery with Robert Greene
  • THE CHECKLIST - by Atul Gawande
  • Carl Sagan - Pale Blue Dot
  • The Most Astounding Fact About the Universe

Charlie Munger

  • Poor Charlie's Almanack
  • The Best of Charlie Munger: 1994-2011
  • VIDEO: Charlie Munger - USC Law School Commencement - May 13, 2007
  • NOTES: Charlie Munger - USC Law School Commencement - May 13, 2007
  • Charlie Munger's "The Psychology of Human Misjudgment"

Warren Buffett

  • Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders
  • Buffett inflation file
  • BUFFETT FAQ

Ben Franklin

  • Ben Franklin's 13 Virtues
  • Ben Franklin - 3 Essays - The Ephemera; The Whistle; Franklin and the Gout

Benjamin Graham

  • The Papers of Benjamin Graham (PDF)
  • The Rediscovered Benjamin Graham: Selected Writings of the Wall Street Legend (PDF)
  • Ben Graham interview (1955)
  • Securities in an Insecure World (1963 Speech)

Peter Bevelin

  • 2007 and 2009 interviews with Peter Bevelin
  • Peter Bevelin's 2016 interview with Farnam Street
  • PDF of Peter Bevelin interviews (2007 and 2009 with Value Investing World; 2016 with Farnam Street)

Howard Marks

  • Howard Marks memos
  • Compilation: Howard Marks Memos from 1990 - July 2011
  • Book: The Most Important Thing
  • Book: Mastering the Market Cycle

Seth Klarman

  • Seth Klarman Letters: 1995 - mid 2001
  • Seth Klarman on the Painful Decision to Hold Cash
  • Seth Klarman - October 2007 Remarks at MIT

Michael Mauboussin

  • Measuring the Moat
  • Competitive Advantage Period "CAP"
  • The Base Rate Book
  • Reflections on the Ten Attributes of Great Investors
  • Who Is On the Other Side?
  • What Does a Price-Earnings Multiple Mean?
  • What Does an EV/EBITDA Multiple Mean?
  • Capital Allocation
  • Capital Allocation Outside the U.S.
  • Operating Leverage

Diversification

  • Warren Buffett on Diversification - 1966
  • Warren Buffett on Diversification (1998)
  • Phil Fisher on diversification
  • More from Phil Fisher on diversification
  • Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on portfolio concentration, and having the right temperament for it
  • Seth Klarman on position sizing (bottom paragraph)
  • Mohnish Pabrai on position sizing
  • Generalizing the Kelly Criterion
  • A quick diversification thought...
  • A few comments on the Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders

Checklists

  • Charlie and Checklists
  • An Investing Principles Checklist from Poor Charlie
  • Key Checklist Items

Expert Performance / Self-Improvement

  • Bill Gates quote from Charlie Rose interview (or, how the world's best companies are built by fanatics)
  • Dr. Peter Drucker: FEEDBACK: KEY TO CONTINUOUS LEARNING
  • What it takes to be great

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