There appears to be an underlying consensus that we are likely to repeat another decade of no or low returns from the stock market. That’s not just my opinion or outlook, it’s collectively yours.
The stock market may not be predictable by the month or year, but its returns over a decade can be reasonably estimated based upon two key measures. This discussion pulls extensive excerpts from Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market Insights, the recently-released book about the plausible range of scenarios for the stock market and returns over this decade.
I’ll explore the implications of your outlook for those two key factors and the resulting probable outcomes for the stock market. Just as Bill Murray woke up to the same thing day after day in the movie “Groundhog Day,” it’s likely that your outlook foretells a groundhog decade for the stock market that will repeat its near-breakeven returns from the past decade!
Before we journey into outlooks and outcomes, let’s explore the principles behind the approach to this analysis and let’s put the two factors into perspective.
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Book: Probable Outcomes
