Value Investing World: Shiller Sees ‘Substantial’ Probability of Recession

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Shiller Sees ‘Substantial’ Probability of Recession

Found via The Big Picture.

Posted by Joe at 6/15/2011

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Value Investing World is a blog dedicated to promoting the multidisciplinary approach to investing and development of – as Charlie Munger describes it – a latticework of mental models. Although largely focused on linking to investing and economic material it deems of interest, it will also post and link to material from other disciplines that it thinks worth reading or watching.

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Useful Links and Other Recommended Reading

2007 and 2009 Interviews with Peter Bevelin
Buffett Partnership Letters
Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
Berkshire Hathaway Owner's Manual
Buffett FAQ
The Best of Charlie Munger: 1994-2011
Charlie Munger - The Art of Stock Picking
Charlie Munger - Academic Economics
Charlie Munger - The Psychology of Human Misjudgment
Charlie Munger - 2007 USC Law School Commencement Notes
Poor Charlie's Almanack
An Investing Principles Checklist from Poor Charlie's Almanack
Oaktree - Howard Marks Memos
EDGAR Company Filing Search
Nasdaq - Search Institutional and Manager Holdings
Stock Buyback Announcements
Insider Trading Activity
SEDI - Canada Insider Buying
Canada Insider Buying
Value Investors Club
52 Week Low List
TED
The Great Courses Plus
Edge
Khan Academy
Academic Earth
OpenCourseWare
MIT OpenCourseWare
Open Yale
YouTube EDU
Open Culture
FORA.tv
Free Large Educational Video & Audio Library
Coursera
The Economist
The Gates Notes

My Favorite (and biased) Non-Investing Related Site

Diane Meets World

All-Time Favorite Posts

Favorite Quotes
Charlie Munger on the balance between competency and gumption...
Charlie Munger on how he invested when younger compared to today, and how he reads books
Charlie Munger: The Importance of Multiple Mental Models
Warren Buffett on temperament...
What can go wrong? [after the links]
Memortation, or One Way to Put What You Learn to Practical Use
Key Checklist Items
Final Decision Checklist
Fundamentals...
If it's not simple, then I'm not interested...
Areté
Stoicism quotes, thoughts, and readings
Charlie Munger on uncommon sense
Interview with Peter Bevelin, author of Seeking Wisdom - from Darwin to Munger
Second Interview with Peter Bevelin
Focusing on expected returns instead of intrinsic value…
Filters
Moonwalking with Einstein
Dr. Peter Drucker: FEEDBACK: KEY TO CONTINUOUS LEARNING
Quotes on ‘the biggest mistake investors make’.
Tom Russo quote
Bill Gates quote from Charlie Rose interview (or, how the world's best companies are built by fanatics)
Charlie Munger - USC Law School Commencement - May 13, 2007
Charlie and Checklists
An Investing Principles Checklist from Poor Charlie
Charlie Munger on high quality businesses and management
Generalizing the Kelly Criterion
A quick diversification thought...
Ed Thorp, Jack Schwager, and the Kelly criterion
Graham and Dodd quote (adjusting assets in calculating book value)
Fully Translated: Li Lu's Foreword to Poor Charlie's Almanack
Ben Franklin's 13 Virtues
Ben Franklin - 3 Essays - The Ephemera; The Whistle; Franklin and the Gout
Ben Franklin and the Junto
Ben Franklin on Humility (and some crafty advice on persuasion)
Nassim Taleb and barbells
Nassim Taleb on Seneca
Seneca quotes (on time)
Welcome Disagreement. Avoid Argument.
Herbert Simon quote on the value of mental models
Seth Klarman quote and some thoughts on deliberate practice in investing
Warren Buffett quote on filters
Alice Schroeder on Buffett’s filtering process
Quote (on success, failure)
Howard Marks on defensive investing
Warren Buffett on Diversification - 1966
Charlie Munger quote (diversification)
Warren Buffett’s Comments on Inflation
Warren Buffett on Share Repurchases
Fortune: December 2001 - Warren Buffett on the Stock Market
Berkshire Hathaway 2007 Annual Meeting - Valuation/IRR Question
Thomas W. Phelps on opinions
It’s a matter of reading and asking questions
Tariq Ali’s Notes from Li Lu’s 2010 Lecture at Columbia
Warren Buffett's 2007 Shareholder Letter
Warren Buffett's 2008 Shareholder Letter
Seth Klarman Letters: 1995 - mid 2001
Mohnish Pabrai on position sizing
Complex systems: Ecology for bankers
Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Tending Seeds - Reacting, Responding, Planting, and Watering
What it takes to be great
Following the Path to Mastery with Robert Greene
THE CHECKLIST - by Atul Gawande
Carl Sagan - Pale Blue Dot
The Most Astounding Fact About the Universe

Charlie Munger

Poor Charlie's Almanack
The Best of Charlie Munger: 1994-2011
VIDEO: Charlie Munger - USC Law School Commencement - May 13, 2007
NOTES: Charlie Munger - USC Law School Commencement - May 13, 2007
Charlie Munger's "The Psychology of Human Misjudgment"

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders
Buffett inflation file
BUFFETT FAQ

Ben Franklin

Ben Franklin's 13 Virtues
Ben Franklin - 3 Essays - The Ephemera; The Whistle; Franklin and the Gout

Benjamin Graham

The Papers of Benjamin Graham (PDF)
The Rediscovered Benjamin Graham: Selected Writings of the Wall Street Legend (PDF)
Ben Graham interview (1955)
Securities in an Insecure World (1963 Speech)

Peter Bevelin

2007 and 2009 interviews with Peter Bevelin
Peter Bevelin's 2016 interview with Farnam Street
PDF of Peter Bevelin interviews (2007 and 2009 with Value Investing World; 2016 with Farnam Street)

Howard Marks

Howard Marks memos
Compilation: Howard Marks Memos from 1990 - July 2011
Book: The Most Important Thing
Book: Mastering the Market Cycle

Seth Klarman

Seth Klarman Letters: 1995 - mid 2001
Seth Klarman on the Painful Decision to Hold Cash
Seth Klarman - October 2007 Remarks at MIT

Michael Mauboussin

Measuring the Moat
Competitive Advantage Period "CAP"
The Base Rate Book
Reflections on the Ten Attributes of Great Investors
Who Is On the Other Side?
What Does a Price-Earnings Multiple Mean?
What Does an EV/EBITDA Multiple Mean?
Capital Allocation
Capital Allocation Outside the U.S.
Operating Leverage

Diversification

Warren Buffett on Diversification - 1966
Warren Buffett on Diversification (1998)
Phil Fisher on diversification
More from Phil Fisher on diversification
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on portfolio concentration, and having the right temperament for it
Seth Klarman on position sizing (bottom paragraph)
Mohnish Pabrai on position sizing
Generalizing the Kelly Criterion
A quick diversification thought...
A few comments on the Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders

Checklists

Charlie and Checklists
An Investing Principles Checklist from Poor Charlie
Key Checklist Items

Expert Performance / Self-Improvement

Bill Gates quote from Charlie Rose interview (or, how the world's best companies are built by fanatics)
Dr. Peter Drucker: FEEDBACK: KEY TO CONTINUOUS LEARNING
What it takes to be great

Disclaimers

Disclaimer #1: This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation for any security, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory or other services by Sorfis Investments, LLC ("Sorfis") or any other entities related to or owned by Sorfis. No reference to any specific security constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that security or any other security. Nothing on this website shall be considered a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any security, future, option or other financial instrument or to offer or provide any investment advice or service to any person in any jurisdiction. Nothing contained on the website constitutes investment advice or offers any opinion with respect to the suitability of any security, and the views expressed on this website should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. In preparing the information contained in this website, I have not taken into account the investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances of any particular investor. This information has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific recipient of this information and investments discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Any views expressed on this website by me were prepared based upon the information available to me at the time such views were written. Changed or additional information could cause such views to change. All information is subject to possible correction. Information may quickly become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances.

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