“The Black Swans we imagine, discuss, and worry about do not resemble those likely to be Black Swans. We worry about the wrong “improbable” events……We like to think about specific and known Black Swans when in fact the very nature of randomness lies in its abstraction.” –Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan
“A good decision can wisely anticipate the range of things that might happen, but the one thing that actually happens may not have been one of the ones that reasonably could have been considered highly likely – or even possible. Or it may just happen at a time other than when it “should” have. The bottom line is that investors are often “right for the wrong reason,” and vice versa.” –Howard Marks, “Assessing Performance Records – A Case Study”