John Mauldin: First Deflation, Then Inflation. But the Timing…?

One of the more frequent questions I am asked in meetings or after a speech is whether I think we will have inflation or deflation. My ready answer is, “Yes.” Then I stop, which I must admit is rather fun, as the person who asked tries to digest the answer. And while my answer is flippant, it’s also the truth, as I do expect both outcomes. So the follow-up question (after the obligatory chuckle from the rest of the group) is for a few more specifics. And the answer is that I expect we will first see deflation and then inflation, but the key is the timing. Today we will examine that question in more detail, as we look at how interest rates could actually be negative (!!!) this week in German and Swiss bonds and why the US ten-year has dipped below 1.5%. The very poor May employment number needs some analysis, too, and we’ll check the prospects of a synchronized global slowdown. Rarely have I come to a Friday with so much data that simply begs for a more thorough look, but we will try to hit at least the most important topics.