“While
forecast errors have always been entertaining, commodity prices have been a
great trap for suckers. Consider this 1970 forecast by U.S. officials (signed
by the U.S. Secretaries of the Treasury, State, Interior, and Defense): “the
standard price of foreign crude oil by 1980 may well decline and will in any
event not experience a substantial increase.” Oil prices went up tenfold by
1980. I just wonder if current forecasters lack in intellectual curiosity or if
they are intentionally ignoring forecast errors.” –Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan
