“Don’t look for the precise and the local. Simply, do not be
narrow-minded. The great discoverer Pasteur, who came up with the notion that
chance favors the prepared, understood that you do not look for something particular
every morning but work hard to let contingency enter your working life. As Yogi
Berra, another great thinker, said, “You got to be very careful if you don’t
know where you’re going, because you might not get there.” Likewise, do not try
to predict precise Black Swans—it tends to make you more vulnerable to the ones
you did not predict.” –Nassim Taleb, The Black
Swan
