“The probabilities of very rare events are not computable;
the effect of an event on us is considerably easier to ascertain (the rarer the
event, the fuzzier the odds). We can have a clear idea of the consequences of
an event, even if we do not know how likely it is to occur….This idea that in
order to make a decision you need to focus on the consequences (which you can
know) rather than the probability (which you can’t know) is the central idea of
uncertainty. Much of my life is based on it.” –Nassim Taleb, The Black
Swan
