A big thanks to Sean for passing this along.
A
specialist in the NBA, his sports gambling success was almost completely the
result of a kind of studied perspicacity, born of a talent for pattern
recognition and the stamina to watch uncountable hours of televised basketball.
In betting parlance, the man could suss out an edge -- and in 2002, he
discovered one that would line his pockets for years. It all had to do with how
most bookmakers set their halftime totals, the predicted number of points
scored in each half of the game. Each half, of course, is its own discrete
period of play, and the fourth quarters of close games can end in elongated
foul-clogged stretches of free throws, timeouts, fast play and, hence, a burst
of scoring. But incredibly, bookmakers at the time didn’t account for this
fact; they simply arrived at a total for the full game and cut that figure
roughly down the middle, assigning some 50 percent of the points to the first
half and 50 percent to the second.