“…it is the
suppressed risk in the statistical “tails” that matters—not the failure to see
the last grain of sand. One analogy to economics: after the inception of the
financial crisis in 2007–2008, many people thought that predicting the subprime
meltdown (which seemed in their mind to have triggered it) would have helped.
It would not have, for Baal’s sake, since it was a symptom of the crisis, not
its underlying cause.” –Nassim Taleb, Antifragile
