“The sociologist of science Steve Shapin, who spent time in
California observing venture capitalists, reports that investors tend to back
entrepreneurs, not ideas. Decisions are largely a matter of opinion
strengthened with “who you know” and “who said what,” as, to use the venture
capitalist’s lingo, you bet on the jockey, not the horse. Why? Because
innovations drift, and one needs flâneur-like abilities to keep capturing the
opportunities that arise, not stay locked up in a bureaucratic mold. The significant
venture capital decisions, Shapin showed, were made without real business
plans. So if there was any “analysis,” it had to be of a backup, confirmatory
nature. I myself spent some time with venture capitalists in California, with
an eye on investing myself, and sure enough, that was the mold.
Visibly the money should go to the tinkerers, the aggressive
tinkerers who you trust will milk the option.”
–Nassim Taleb, Antifragile