Claire Barnes' Q4 letter: The next three decades may be different

You don't hear many fund managers say this: "In a changing world, fresh thinking and skills may be required. Investors may wish to seek fund managers better equipped for the future: redemption requests remain welcome."

Investors will be familiar with the adage that the most dangerous phrase in investing is that "this time is different". When it comes to excitement over new technologies, fads, and bubbles, the sceptics are generally (in the end) proved correct. Yet today it seems appropriate to examine several potential cracks in the foundations of conventional thinking on economics and investment. I have been fortunate enough to spend my working life in Asia during a period of peace, prosperity, and globalisation, and to have witnessed tremendous growth, with a few major bear markets along the way. I am accustomed to cycles, but currently more interested in secular trends. It seems to me that the next three decades may be very different from the last three, and from the last century or so on which most investment thinking is based. A number of my assumptions have changed significantly in the last five years, with more focus on the following: