Links

Warren Buffett on Protecting Physicians and Building on Success: “We’re Here to Last” (video) [H/T Will] (LINK)

Why Gotham's Greenblatt Likes 'Gushing' Cash-Flow Stocks (video) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Taleb Says World Is More Fragile Today Than in 2007 (video) (LINK)

No One is Crazy - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

That Big Mac and Coke Now Comes With a Side Order of Inflation ($) (LINK)

After 10 Years, Bitcoin Has Changed Everything—and Nothing (LINK)

Jonathan Tepper on the Grant's Current Yield Podcast discussing his book The Myth of Capitalism (LINK)

Exponential Wisdom Podcast: Transforming Entertainment (LINK)

Peter and Dan discuss entertainment business models and why there is massive opportunity in the area of how money is made.

Dan Pink chats with Cal Fussman (podcast) (LINK)

Related book: When: The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing

Robert Greene chats with Lewis Howes about his book The Laws of Human Nature (podcast) (LINK)

TED Talk: Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham Allison (LINK)

Related book: Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?

TED Talk: What everyday citizens can do to claim power on the internet | Fadi Chehadé and Bryn Freedman (LINK)

TED Talk: How tech companies deceive you into giving up your data and privacy | Finn Myrstad (LINK)

Animals Are Riding an Escalator to Extinction - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Ain’t no mountain high enough to escape climate change.

Wait, Have We Really Wiped Out 60 Percent of Animals? - by Ed Yong (LINK)

The findings of a major new report have been widely mischaracterized—although the actual news is still grim.

How to Not Become a Zombie, Using Martial Arts - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Reader beware: These techniques may work only if you're a cockroach.

Tom Gayner reveals how he became a successful investor

Link to video


[H/T Ian]

Links

"If you really think you’re in with people that have got a good business, but they’re going to keep doing dumb things with your money, you’ll probably do better to get out and get in with people who’ve got a good business and you think they’re going to do sensible things with it.... As a matter of investment technique, and maybe as a matter of...avoiding stress in your life...I would say that it’s better to be in with a management you’re simpatico with, than simply to be in a great business with a management that’s bent on doing things that don’t make much sense to you." --Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett’s Firm Invests Millions in Fintech ($) (LINK)

What Investors Can Learn From Gamblers - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

Notes From Capitalize For Kids Conference 2018 (LINK)

An October Surprise? Making Sense of the Market Mayhem! - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

IBM’s Old Playbook - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Creating Surplus - by Fred Wilson (LINK)

Expedia CEO Insists That Online Travel Agencies Aren’t Over (LINK) [There are also a bunch of videos from the Skift Global Forum on YouTube for those interested.]

Execution is Everything - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Related book: Measure What Matters

Deep Throat blog: The Most Disturbing Statement... (LINK)

The Surprising Power of The Long Game (LINK)

Martin Short’s Nine Categories for Self Evaluation - by Ben Carlson (LINK)

Everything You Wear Is Athleisure - by Derek Thompson (LINK)

Yoga pants, tennis shoes, and the 100-year history of how sports changed the way Americans dress

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: Tomorrow’s sales today (LINK)

Alex Honnold talks to Joe Rogan (podcast) (LINK)

TED Talk: How will we survive when the population hits 10 billion? | Charles C. Mann (LINK)

Links

"Ben Franklin said, 'If you want to be miserable, you know, during Easter or something like that,' he says, 'borrow a lot of money to be repaid at Lent,' or something to that effect. And similarly, being short something, which keeps going up because somebody is promoting it in a half-crooked way, and you keep losing, and they call on you for more margin — it just isn’t worth it to have that much irritation in your life. It isn’t that hard to make money somewhere else with less irritation." --Charlie Munger

Bethany McLean talks with Hank Paulson and Chris Dodd about the financial crisis (video...starting at the 9:54 mark) (LINK)

Mohnish Pabrai's Interview with CNBC – TV18 on Investing Opportunities in India (video) (LINK)

The Pitfalls of Early Success – A Personal History (LINK)

Chip Conley: "Wisdom@Work: The Making of a Modern Elder" | Talks at Google (LINK)

The Ezra Klein Show: Doris Kearns Goodwin (live!) on how great presidents are made (podcast) (LINK)

Related book: Leadership: In Turbulent Times

Famed short seller tells Dallas investors where they shouldn't put their money (LINK)

Jeffrey Gundlach interview with Citywire (Part 1, Part 2)

Jeffrey Gundlach: I don't read a lot of commentary. I think I learned the most from Richard Russell, who was a newsletter writer from 1958 and he did it continuously until a few years ago when he passed away in his late 80s. He had a lot of experience and a lot of ideas and methods and I learned a lot by reading those letters. I don't subscribe anymore. I think his children have taken over. But I really liked Richard Russell.  

And I read Jim Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. Every now and then there's an issue with a real gem of an idea. Sometimes there isn't, but very few publications ever have a true gem. He has them in there. 

I read the newswires more than anything else. What I'm looking for is these magical moments when the data doesn't change but the interpretation of it does. That's very interesting, because it tells you that something has shifted in terms of mood, or attitude, or emotion or sentiment. The opposite happens too, which is equally interesting. That is that the data does change but people don’t realize it and the narrative stays the same. And that happens a lot too. So I always look for things that used to be true that are no longer true, but people don't realize it yet. 

My biggest lesson that I've learned... I have the same flaw that every human being has and that is: As you're growing up and getting older, you believe that everybody's like you. You just extrapolate your personality traits and proclivities on other people. Then you start to realize increasingly, that that's not true. And I believed, therefore, that everybody was intellectually objective and honest and wanted to figure things out for themselves. And I didn't understand, for probably as long as 20 years, why I couldn't convince people of almost mathematically analytical arguments regarding markets. And it was finally after years of this that I realized that people actually want to be told what to think. 

It took me a long time to understand that. Not me, see, I don't want to be told what to think. And so I figured nobody wants to be told what to think. But indeed, I think almost everybody wants to be told what to think. That creates a tremendous advantage in managing money. Because in that window of time between a fact and people being told what the fact means, you have a window if you're capable of figuring out what it means - and don't need to be told what it means – where you can actually act before other people and I found I've made a lot of money that way. 

I remember when Ben Bernanke announced the Fed funds rate was going to stay at 0% for three years, and the markets didn't move. And I had my traders look for this asset class in the bond market that would be the primary beneficiary of rate staying at zero for three years. And I said, “How much of the prices up?” And they said, “They're not up at all.”

Project Punch Card Conference

I'm an advisor to Project Punch Card, which is a great non-profit organized by a few of my value investor friends, including Vishal Mishra who first discussed the project with me while we were in Omaha for the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting this year. The launch event for the endeavor will be the Project Punch Card Conference. 

The conference will be all about the long term. You will hear from thought leaders in the value investing community about what it means to be long-term oriented. And it has an incredible line-up of speakers and thought leaders including David Abrams (in a rare public appearance), John Rogers, Jonathan Levin, Murray Stahl and more. We are offering a limited number of super-early-bird tickets for $145, after which the price increases to $495 for early-bird tickets and then $995 for full-priced tickets. The super-early-bird pricing will end on November 7th. To register, click on the link below. 

Project Punch Card Value Investing Conference

Links

"There will be a battle, always, between brands and retailers, because the retailer would like his name to be the brand. And, to the extent that people trust Costco or Walmart more than they — or as much as — they trust the brand, then the value of having the brand moves over to the retailer from the product itself." --Warren Buffett (2001 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting)

A few more Howard Marks appearances as he was making his rounds discussing Mastering the Market Cycle (Bloomberg, ET Now, Motley Fool)

Role of the State: Hitler and FDR’s Response to the Great Depression (LINK)

10 Toxic Character Types To Avoid Hiring At All Costs - by Robert Greene (LINK)

Related book: The Laws of Human Nature

Episode 2 of the Freakonomics "How to Be Creative" series: Where Does Creativity Come From (and Why Do Schools Kill It Off)? (podcast) (LINK)

The Richest Woman in America: Hetty Green in the Gilded Age (video) (LINK) [I don't have access to the whole article, but Warren Buffett also recommended an article on Hetty Green, "She Had to Have It," back in 2001, and mentioned that she "was one of the original incorporators of Hathaway Manufacturing, half of our Berkshire Hathaway operation, back in the 1880s."]

Related book: The Richest Woman in America: Hetty Green in the Gilded Age - by Janet Wallach

The Recurring Puzzle of an Illness That Paralyzes Children - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Links

As I was reviewing the names on my watch list, I noticed Box Inc. is well below the price where Chamath Palihapitiya recommended it at the Sohn Conference earlier this year. For those interested, the presentation excerpt (video) where he recommends it is HERE. [Disclosure: No position.]

***

Humble Exits - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

The Problem with Facebook and Virtual Reality - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Ben Thompson chats with Tyler Cowen (podcast) (LINK)

Decrypted Podcast: How Your DNA Test Could Land a Relative in Jail (LINK)

Trailblazers with Walter Isaacson (podcast) -- Politics: The Medium is the Message (LINK)

Why It’s Hard to Break the Gnus - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day: The Meat Racket: The Secret Takeover of America's Food Business

Links

Paul Volcker, at 91, Sees ‘a Hell of a Mess in Every Direction’ (LINK)

The former Fed chairman, whose memoir will be published this month, had a feisty take on the state of politics and government during an interview.   

Related book: Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government

CNBC's full interview with Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass (video) (LINK)

CEO of Buffett-owned Brooks Running considers moving out of China with 45% tariffs looming [H/T Linc] (LINK)

The Story of John Mackay – The Bonanza King (LINK)

Related book: The Bonanza King: John Mackay and the Battle over the Greatest Riches in the American West

The City That Had Too Much Money (LINK)

Vancouver was the first place to experience the tidal wave of Chinese cash. Now the city is leading efforts to stop it.

The Outrage Epidemic-II - by Russ Roberts (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Howard Lindzon – Fintech and Trend Following (LINK)

Robert Greene talks to James Altucher about his new book, The Laws of Human Nature (podcast) (LINK)

5 Questions to Ask During Your Hospital Stay (LINK)

Related book: An American Sickness

A Climate Catastrophe Paved the Way for the Dinosaurs’ Reign - by Peter Brannen (LINK)

The World’s Most Valuable Parasite Is in Trouble - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Links

"...in my view, risk is primarily the likelihood of permanent capital loss. But there’s also such a thing as opportunity risk: the likelihood of missing out on potential gains. Put the two together and we see that risk is the possibility of things not going the way we want." --Howard Marks

Investing is Hard - by Ian Cassel (video presentation) (LINK)

Fall 2018 Edition of Graham & Doddsville (LINK)

The students of Columbia Business School just released the Fall 2018 edition of Graham & Doddsville.  It features members of Tweedy, Browne’s investment committee, Scott Miller of Greenhaven Road Capital and Steve Tusa of JP Morgan.  It also includes 2 stock pitches from students of Columbia’s Value Investing program.

You’re a Bad Investor? That Can Be Good - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

James Grant on WealthTrack discussing Why Interest Rates Matter (video) (LINK)

Masters of Scale Podcast: Danny Meyer — When (and how) to ignore conventional wisdom (LINK)

Matt Ridley reviews the book Blueprint: How DNA Makes Us Who We Are by Robert Plomin (LINK)

Links

Tony Deden's remarks at the Grant's Fall Conference (LINK)

Horizon Kinetics‬⁩ Q3 Commentary [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK)

Sears’s Edward Lampert Was a Wizard. Now He’s Coming to Terms With Failure [H/T @williamgreen72] (LINK)

Action Speaks Louder Than Words - by Sean Iddings (LINK)

Bethany McLean chats about her book Saudi America, on a panel with Climate One (video) (LINK)

“There Ain’t Gonna Be No Core” - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

The Prophets of Cryptocurrency Survey the Boom and Bust [H/T @kevin2kelly] (LINK)

The Race Is On to Feed China’s Giant Appetite for Pork—and the U.S. Is Losing ($) (LINK)

TED Talk: The pharmacy of the future? Personalized pills, 3D printed at home | Daniel Kraft (LINK)

Jocko Willink & Leif Babin talk to James Altucher about their new book, The Dichotomy of Leadership (podcast) (LINK)

Freakonomics Radio (podcast): How to Be Creative (LINK)

Cuttlefish: Wearing thoughts on the skin (video) (LINK)

Links

"You want to look at your stocks as businesses, and think about their performance as businesses. Think about what you pay for them, as you would think about buying a business. And let the rest of the world go its own way." --Warren Buffett

What I loved about Paul Allen - by Bill Gates (LINK)

Warren Buffett Predicted The Fall Of Eddie Lampert And Sears Over 10 Years Ago (LINK)

What Billy Beane and Jim Simons Have in Common - by Ted Seides (LINK)

Ben Thompson's video presentation at the FTC's Hearing on Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century (LINK)

Haste Makes Waste - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Why decentralization could prove the most disruptive tech megatrend of the next decade (LINK)

Productivity Growth: Can the U.S. Economy Stay Airborne Without It? - by Frank Martin (LINK)

High and higher: The Money in Marijuana! - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

Why Doctors Reject Tools That Make Their Jobs Easier [H/T @iancassel] (LINK)

The Choose-Your-Own-Adventure Guide to Solving Relationship Problems - by Mark Manson (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Team CoVenture – Esoteric Credit (LINK)

Decrypted Podcast: Inside the Backlash Against Juul (LINK)

The Skift Podcast: The Next Big Challenges for Low-Cost Airlines (LINK)

Oops, the Oldest Fossils Ever Found Might Be Just Rocks - by Ed Yong (LINK)

The Butterflies That Hear With Their Wings - by Ed Yong (LINK)

A Simpler Way to Get to the Bottom of Mysterious Illnesses in Poor Countries - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day (released next week): The Laws of Human Nature - by Robert Greene

Links

Jeff Bezos Wants Us All to Leave Earth—for Good - by Steven Levy‬⁩ (LINK)

Jeff Bezos chats with Steven Levy at the Wired25 Summit (video, starting at the 58:40 mark) (LINK)

Fireside Chat: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Naval Ravikant (video) (LINK)

How a Subprime Auto Lender Consumed Detroit With Debt and Turned Its Courthouse Into a Collections Agency [H/T @WallStCynic] (LINK)

How to Make a Big Decision - by Steven Johnson (LINK)

Yahoo Finance Sportsbook Podcast: Michael Lewis on sports in 2018 [H/T Linc] (LINK)

It Will Take Millions of Years for Mammals to Recover From Us - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on financial institutions

This is a response to a question about selling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, from the 2001 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, that I thought was worth highlighting:

WARREN BUFFETT: ...We feel there’s so much about a financial institution that you don’t know by looking at just the figures, that if anything bothers us a little bit, we’re never sure whether it’s an iceberg situation or not.  

And that doesn’t mean it is an iceberg situation, in the least, at banks or insurance companies that we pass.  

But we have seen enough of what happens with financial institutions that push one way or another, that if we get some feeling that that’s going on, we just figure we’ll never see it until it’s too late anyway.  

So we bid adieu — and wish them the best — without any implication that they’re doing anything wrong. It’s just that we can’t be 100 percent sure of the fact they’re doing things that we like.  

And when we get to that situation, it’s different than buying into a company with a product or something, or a retail operation. You could spot troubles usually fairly early in those businesses. You spot troubles in financial institutions late. It’s just the nature of the beast.  

Charlie?  

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. Financial institutions tend to make us nervous when they’re trying to do well. (Laughter)  

That sounds paradoxical, but that’s the way it is.  

WARREN BUFFETT: Financial institutions don’t get in trouble by running out of cash in most cases. Other businesses, you can spot that way.  

But a financial institution can go beyond the point — and we had banks 10 years ago that did that, en masse — but they can go beyond the point of solvency even while they still have plenty of money around. 

Links

"The game in our kind of life is being able to recognize a good idea when...it rarely is presented to you. And I think that’s something you have to prepare for over a long period. What is the old saying? That opportunity comes to the prepared mind? And I don’t think you can teach people in two minutes how to have a prepared mind. But that’s the game." --Charlie Munger

When Markets Tank, Do This - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

Tariffs Hit Those Trump Wants to Help: U.S. Factories ($) (LINK)

Book Review: Mastering the Market Cycle (LINK)

Howard Marks on The Investors Podcast (LINK)

Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle

Did Uber Steal Google’s Intellectual Property? - by Charles Duhigg (LINK)

How Manhattan Became a Rich Ghost Town - by Derek Thompson (LINK)

Lessons from Annie Duke - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Related book: Thinking in Bets

John Hempton's 2011 post on Sears Holdings (LINK)

My view: owning Sears as a property play is a demonstration of the arrogance and breathtaking naivete of much that passes on Wall Street. Sears Holdings has over 300 thousand employees. I don't know how you successfully liquidate a business integrated with that many lives. I don't know of anyone who has ever successfully liquidated a business with that many employees.** I am not sure it can be done and it certainly can't be done by someone with my skill-set (highly analytical, ability to spy value or value traps but no people management skill and not much tact). 

The idea that Sears was going to be managed/liquidated by a bunch of hedge fund guys (people like me) well - that was comical. 

Just to stress the point for my fund manager friends who read accounts and have my skills (but like me are often disconnected from the businesses they invest in) I will state the obvious. The employees are living breathing people and as you pull the business apart the way you treat those people and how they think about you (and behave towards you) are critical to any value you extract in liquidation. Someone has to look these people in the eye and tell them they don't have a job. And someone has to pick-and-choose which people to fire and which to retain. And they have to do this without destroying much of the value extracted along the way. They have to liquidate the firm in such a way that the value accrues to the liquidators and not to the people who are being screwed. 

I don't care what you think of the morality of that. The reality of that is that it was always going to be hard - possibly very hard.

Stephen Hawking feared race of ‘superhumans’ able to manipulate their own DNA [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Related book: Brief Answers to the Big Questions

Male Gorillas Love Hanging Around With Infants - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Links

"If you're going to do anything new or different in the world, it is going to be misunderstood. Sometimes by well-meaning critics. Sometimes by self-interested critics. You'll get all kinds. And it's okay. It's all part of the process. The only way to avoid criticism altogether is to be completely conventional in everything you do. So how do you respond the the criticism?... What's the right thing to do? Well, I think the first thing you do is you ask: Are the critics right? You listen. You ask are they right? Or even if they're not completely right, is there some piece of it that's right that you can be inspired by? And then if you decide, by the way, that the answer is no—that you believe you have conviction that what you're doing is the right course—then no force in the world should be able to move you. You should have a deep keel. But if you decide that there is something, then you should change." --Jeff Bezos

Jeff Bezos receives the Sammies Spirit of Service award, and then chats with Michael Lewis [H/T ValueWalk] (it starts with 27 minutes left in the livestream video) (LINK)

Mohnish Pabrai Lecture at Boston College: "The Ten Commandments of Investment Management" (video) (LINK)

James Grant and Jason Zweig on WealthTrack (video) (LINK)

Hedge Fund Billionaire Rode the Worst Trade of His Life All the Way Down [Lampert/Sears] (LINK)

Introduction and Chapter One of Jonathan Tepper's new book, The Myth of Capitalism: Monopolies and the Death of Competition (LINK)

Stephen King’s 20 Rules for Writers (LINK)

What Manatees Do During Hurricane Season - by Ed Yong (LINK)

"Generally speaking, there’s more felicity to be gained...from reducing expectations than in any other way." --Charlie Munger

Links

"We don’t have a master plan.... Charlie and I do not sit around and strategize or talk about the future of various industries or do anything of that sort. It just doesn’t happen. We don’t have any reports. We don’t have any staff. We don’t have any of that.... We try to look at what comes in and look for things we understand, where we think they have a durable, competitive advantage, where we like the management, and where the price is sensible." --Warren Buffett

Time Horizon vs. Endurance - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

The Meb Faber Show (podcast): #125 - Tom Barton - "The Biggest Problem Investors Have is Things Change…and They Don’t Change" (LINK)

Tom is the Founder, President, and General Partner of White Rock Capital. He helped build the first multibillion-dollar short-selling hedge fund at Feshbach Brothers in the 1980s, where he exposed dozens of stock frauds. Then he became an early-stage investor, going long on health foods and satellite TV. Now he runs White Rock Capital, where much of his focus is on investments in gene-therapy firms.

The North Star Podcast -- Daniel Gross: Dreams and Determination (LINK)

My guest today is Daniel Gross, a partner at Y Combinator, the world’s best startup studio. Daniel focuses on artificial intelligence at Y Combinator and recently founded AI Grant, a distributed AI Research Lab.  

American Innovations Podcast: Polio Vaccine | Marching Towards a Cure (LINK)

By the middle of the last century Americans lived in fear of one disease: polio. The story of the polio vaccine is not just a scientific story- it’s a political and financial one, too. One that would pave the way for medical research fundraising campaigns that followed.

TED Talk: What baby boomers can learn from millennials at work -- and vice versa | Chip Conley (LINK)

Yuval Noah Harari: "21 Lessons for the 21st Century" | Talks at Google (LINK)

Soyuz rocket failure after launch forces emergency landing; crew safe on the ground (LINK)

The Maya Kept Jaguar Zoos for Centuries - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Links

"Students of financial history can point to historic levels of valuation to suggest that we are in a bubble. But students of psychology may be needed to complete the picture. For one thing, the financial markets have been so strong for so long that fear of market risk has mostly evaporated. People who used to hold bank certificates of deposit now maintain a portfolio of growth stocks. It is not really within human nature to comprehend that you may not know everything you think you know, and, further, that what you believe in could change on a dime.... With more and more of the market value of U.S. equities represented by lofty (in some cases infinite) multiples of current results, a change in sentiment could wipe out a large percentage of investor net worth. Sentiment, existing only in the minds of investors, is subject to change quickly and without notice." --Seth Klarman (June 1999)

Howard Marks' interview on Nasdaq Spotlight (video) (LINK)

Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle

The Battle for the Home - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy [H/T @Valuetrap13] (LINK)

For Doctors, Delving Deeper as a Way to Avoid Burnout - by Siddhartha Mukherjee (LINK)

If you keep hearing the name Jordan Peterson but still don't know much about him, this two-and-a-half-hour video conversation seems to cover his thoughts and ideas pretty thoroughly.... Oz Talk: Jordan Peterson’s Rules to Live By

Links

Accomplishing True Mastery - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

Can the Wi-Fi chip in your phone help feed the world? - By Bill Gates (LINK)

Greenlight Capital's Q3 Letter (LINK)

Pershing Square's presentation on Starbucks (LINK)

Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve governor, on the Grant’s Current Yield Podcast (LINK)

Exponential Wisdom Podcast: AI Disrupting the Middleman (LINK)

Peter and Dan discuss the disintermediation of the insurance industry, and specifically how AI will disrupt the middleman in all industries.

NPR Planet Monday re-released a podcast from 2014, "The History of Light," that featured Bill Nordhaus, who just won the economics Nobel. Josh Wolfe also re-tweeted some things he wrote about the other economics Nobel winner, Paul Romer, from back in 2015. Romer was also on EconTalk three times and gave a Long Now talk in 2009, for those interested. 

Everyday Discrimination Literally Raises Women’s Blood Pressure - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Links

"We only regard errors as being things that are within our circle of competence. So if somebody knows how to make money in cocoa beans, or they know how to make money in a software company or anything, and we miss that, that is not an error, as far as we’re concerned. What’s an error is when it’s something we understand, and we stand there and stare at it, and we don’t do anything. Or worse yet, what really gets me is when we do something very small with it. We do an eyedropper’s worth of it, when we could do it very big." --Warren Buffett

Lessons from Howard Marks’ New Book: “Mastering the Market Cycle – Getting the Odds on Your Side” - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Why Quant Investor Cliff Asness Is Staying Calm, Despite a Tough 2018 (LINK)

Why Do Computers Use So Much Energy? (LINK)

How I Built This podcast -- method: Adam Lowry & Eric Ryan (LINK)

a16z Podcast: From Research to Startup, There and Back Again (LINK)

The New Atlanta Billionaires Behind An Unlikely Tech Unicorn (LINK)

Reddit: the rancorous rise of a social-media phenomenon (LINK)

Related book: We Are the Nerds: The Birth and Tumultuous Life of Reddit, the Internet's Culture Laboratory

TED Talk: How I climbed a 3,000-foot vertical cliff -- without ropes | Alex Honnold (LINK) [The documentary on the climb is now playing in select theaters as well.]

Links

"I do find that most creative people end up applying different rules to their lives—in terms of how their lives are managed—because creativity doesn't necessarily conform to more traditional boundaries; whether their hours of work, places of work, circumstances. What you have to accept with creators and creativity is that one rule doesn't apply. It's whatever works for them." --Bob Iger

Bob Iger’s Bets Are Paying Off Big Time for Disney (LINK)

Howard Marks talks with Barry Ritholtz (podcast) (LINK)

Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle

Robert Vinall with an excellent letter on the 10-year anniversary of his fund [registration required] (LINK)

A great list of Investment Resources [H/T Linc] (LINK) [It may be especially worthwhile to read THIS, 10 years after the event.]

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon doesn't think he has too much power in this economy (Corner Office podcast) (LINK)

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Investor Sentiment and the Housing Market -  by John Huber (LINK)

Risk Management - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

How Humans Get Hacked: Yuval Noah Harari & Tristan Harris Talk with WIRED (video) (LINK)

Yuval Noah Harari, historian and best-selling author of Sapiens, Homo Deus and 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, and Tristan Harris, co-founder and executive director of the Center for Humane Technology, speak with WIRED Editor in Chief Nicholas Thompson.

Lawrence Burns: "AUTONOMY: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car" | Talks at Google (LINK)

Yale Is Said to Invest in Crypto Fund That Raised $400 Million (LINK)

The Fed on Unemployment and the Future - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

Jim Grant on CNBC yesterday (video) (LINK)

Michael Lewis calls Trump's approach to staffing the government 'insane' (video) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Related book: The Fifth Risk

For Real Vision subscribers, Kyle Bass sits down with Graham Allison, author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, to chat about China, geopolitics, history, and more (LINK) [If you're not a subscriber and would to join or take a free trial, you can sign up HERE.]

Human Action: A Chapter-by-Chapter Summary (LINK)

Four roads we call customer service - by Seth Godin (LINK)

On the Law of Diminishing Specialization - by Cal Newport (LINK)

Your Work Is the Only Thing That Matters - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

A Controversial Virus Study Reveals a Critical Flaw in How Science Is Done - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Slightly More Than 100 Fantastic Articles [H/T Phil] (LINK)

A list of nonfiction journalism from 2017 that will stand the test of time.

Links

"We’ve done a lot of that, scrambled out of wrong decisions. I’d argue that’s a big part of having a reasonable record in life. You can’t avoid the wrong decisions. But if you recognize them promptly and do something about them, you can frequently turn the lemon into lemonade." --Charlie Munger

"We do find, if you just show up every day, like Woody Allen said, and you answer the phone and read the paper, every now and then, you see something that makes sense to do." --Warren Buffett

Bill Gates' Goalkeepers presentation: Is poverty inevitable? (video) (LINK)

Oaktree's Howard Marks Calls for Caution in the Markets (video) (LINK)

Related memo: The Seven Worst Words in the World

Howard Marks talks with Meb Faber (podcast) (LINK)

Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle

Offering Inspiration and Advice, Real Vision Is HGTV for Hedge Fund Hopefuls (LINK)

Is Amazon Woke Now? - by Derek Thompson (LINK)

Patrick Collison, the founder Stripe, on running a startup company for success (video) (LINK)

Fantastic Beasts and How to Rank Them - by Kathryn Schulz (LINK)

The relative plausibility of impossible beings tells you a lot about how the mind works.

Fruit has become so sugary that animals at one zoo can no longer eat it [H/T @B3_MillerValue] (LINK)

The Game-Changing Technique Behind an Amazing New Archaeological Discovery - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Kelly, the Sassy Dolphin [H/T @edyong209] (LINK)

"I think curiosity and character are the two most important attributes to have. I’m not sure how to best build curiosity in people, but I’d say the habit of asking a lot of questions like “why” in order to make sense of things is good. As for character, the most important habit is to go to the pain because it will strengthen you which will give you the power you need to be successful. Pain + Reflection = Progress.  With practice the pain won’t be as painful and you will begin to see the pleasures of the successes so that going to the pain will make you feel good rather than bad." --Ray Dalio (Source)

Links

As most readers of this blog will know, Howard Marks' new book, Mastering the Market Cycle, was released today.

Winning It Back - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

Data Factories - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Buyer beware? - by Seth Godin (LINK)

Atul Gawande talks with Shane Parrish on The Knowledge Project Podcast (LINK)

The world-renowned surgeon, writer, and researcher Atul Gawande shares powerful lessons about creating a culture of safe learning, the critical difference between a coach and a mentor, and how to ensure constant improvement in key areas of your personal and professional life.

Fritjof Capra on the MetaLearn Podcast (LINK)

Related book: The Systems View of Life: A Unifying Vision

Yuval Noah Harari In Conversation with Christine Lagarde (video) (LINK)

Related book: 21 Lessons for the 21st Century

Ryan Holiday on Merging Creativity and Business (podcast) (LINK)

A newly discovered extremely distant icy world points to Planet 9 - by Phil Plait (LINK)

What a Beetle’s Genital Worms Reveals About the Concept of Individuality - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Links

An excerpt from a rare, long interview with Stanley Druckenmiller (video) (LINK) [If you want to watch the entire 90-minute interview and you're not yet a subscriber, you can join or take a free trial by signing up HERE.]

A Primer on Banks (LINK)

The ‘Dumb’ Money Is Bailing on U.S. Stocks. That’s Smart. - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

Lessons from Scott Belsky’s Book “The Messy Middle” - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Market Timing is Hard - by Ben Carlson (LINK)

Insider Trading’s Odd Couple: The Goldman Banker and the NFL Linebacker (LINK)

Cities Are Teaming Up to Offer Broadband, and the FCC Is Mad (LINK)

How Serious is the New Facebook Breach? - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

TED Talk: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion | Liv Boeree (LINK)

This Timeless And Boldy Optimistic Idea Could Change Your Life - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

Michael Lewis’s new book about Trump is a convincing ode to big government (LINK)

The book, which combines two features Lewis wrote for Vanity Fair and an audiobook he produced with Audible, extolls the virtues of the government at its best: The weather data we get from our apps? Thank NOAA. The fact that there aren’t more geese crowding American airports? Thanks, US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The reason eastern North Carolina didn’t get obliterated by a rogue hydrogen bomb in 1961? Safety mechanisms built by the Department of Energy (DOE).